Famalicao 0-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Famalicao host Santa Clara at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Famalicao have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Famalicao) versus 1.60 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1, Santa Clara 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Famalicao 56% and Santa Clara 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 60% | Santa Clara 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.37 xG and Santa Clara 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.992 / defence 1.017 | Santa Clara attack 0.799 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.323. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Famalicao games / 25 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 41% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Santa Clara 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Santa Clara 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 41% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Famalicao 1.37 / Santa Clara 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.992 / def 1.017 | Santa Clara attack 0.799 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Santa Clara xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Santa Clara kick off?
Famalicao vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Famalicao 0 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Famalicao vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Santa Clara part of?
Famalicao vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 41% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Famalicao and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Santa Clara in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.99) and Santa Clara's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
41%
2.45
33%
3.06
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Santa Clara xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
7%
14.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.07 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 8D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (7W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 1.04 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Famalicao's home form reads 3W 5D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.20 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Santa Clara away?
Famalicao's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.17 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Famalicao
1
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Santa Clara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Santa Clara 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Santa Clara 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 67% (Santa Clara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Famalicao's games and 67% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Famalicao's matches and 67% of Santa Clara's.
Do Famalicao and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 26, as Famalicao and Santa Clara drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.37 xG and Santa Clara 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Santa Clara landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Santa Clara attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 41% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 60%, Santa Clara 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.04 PPG, Santa Clara 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.