Famalicao vs FC Porto – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against FC Porto's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — FC Porto's attack (1.46x) against Famalicao's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
24%
4.12
27%
3.68
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.31
1.41
FC Porto xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.80
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.41 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs FC Porto?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.