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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sat 27 Dec 2025

18:00

Venue

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

64%

Famalicao

1.57

21%

Draw

4.83

16%

Estrela

6.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.2%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.01

Famalicao xG

Total xG

2.89

0.88

Estrela xG

64%
21%
16%
FamalicaoDrawEstrela

1.57

64%

Home win

4.83

21%

Draw

6.39

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.97

49%

BTTS No

2.03

Clean Sheet

41%

Famalicao

2.41

13%

Estrela

7.46

Win to Nil

26%

Famalicao

3.79

2%

Estrela

47.64

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 11.2 9.8 4.3 1.3 0.3
2 11.2 9.9 4.4 1.3 0.3
3 7.5 6.6 2.9 0.9 0.2
4 3.8 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
5 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.009
λ Away (xG) 0.881
Total xG 2.890
League avg home goals 1.340
League avg away goals 1.273
Famalicao attack strength 1.151
Famalicao defence strength 0.729
Estrela attack strength 0.948
Estrela defence strength 1.303
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49