Famalicao 2-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Casa Pia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Famalicao, 0.90 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Famalicao 2W, Casa Pia 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 54% versus Casa Pia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 48% | Casa Pia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.44 xG and Casa Pia 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.063 / defence 0.742 | Casa Pia attack 0.809 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.217. Famalicao's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Famalicao games / 67 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 54% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 19%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Casa Pia 5.26. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 50% | Casa Pia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 54% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Famalicao 1.44 / Casa Pia 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.063 / def 0.742 | Casa Pia attack 0.809 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Casa Pia xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Famalicao 2 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 54% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Record (5 meetings): Famalicao 2W | Draws 1 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 1.06x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.81x) against Famalicao's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.71
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.17
0.73
Casa Pia xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
5%
22.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.73 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 21W 23D 23L from 67 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 28L across 67 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Famalicao against 1.24 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 12W 13D 8L from 33 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 11W 8D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 23D 23L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 22W 17D 28L in their last 67 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.48 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Famalicao) and 54% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 27% of games; Casa Pia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Famalicao's recent matches and 52% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Famalicao's recent games and 54% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Casa Pia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Casa Pia 2-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.44 xG and Casa Pia 0.73 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.06 / defence 0.74 against Casa Pia attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 54% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 19%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.28 PPG, Casa Pia 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.