Famalicao 1-2 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Boavista have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Famalicao against 1.00 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 5–2 with Famalicao winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Famalicao 56% and Boavista 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 56% | Boavista 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.20 xG and Boavista 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.895 / defence 0.965 | Boavista attack 0.759 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.266. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Famalicao games / 27 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 39% | Draw 35% | Boavista 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Boavista 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Famalicao 40% | Boavista 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 39% | Draw 35% | Boavista 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Famalicao 1.20 / Boavista 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.895 / def 0.965 | Boavista attack 0.759 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Boavista xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Boavista kick off?
Famalicao vs Boavista kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Boavista.
Where is Famalicao vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Boavista part of?
Famalicao vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 39% chance of winning, Boavista a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Famalicao and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Boavista (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.90x the league average against Boavista's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.76x) against Famalicao's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
39%
2.56
35%
2.83
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Boavista xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.93 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 10D 11L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 4W 15D 8L from 27 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Famalicao against 1.00 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 1W 6D 6L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.15 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 6W 10D 11L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Boavista have gone 4W 15D 8L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Boavista away?
Famalicao's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.15 PPG; Boavista away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Famalicao
2
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Boavista have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Boavista 0-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Boavista?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 46%, Boavista 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 54% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Famalicao's games and 77% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 54% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Boavista tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Boavista in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boavista defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.20 xG and Boavista 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Boavista attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 39% | Draw 35% | Boavista 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 56%, Boavista 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.04 PPG, Boavista 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.