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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sun 23 Feb 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio José Gomes

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

35%

Estrela

2.84

26%

Draw

3.80

39%

Santa Clara

2.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.1%

Away win

1 – 0

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Estrela xG

Total xG

2.74

1.41

Santa Clara xG

35%
26%
39%
EstrelaDrawSanta Clara

2.84

35%

Home win

3.80

26%

Draw

2.60

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.27

Clean Sheet

24%

Estrela

4.09

26%

Santa Clara

3.80

Win to Nil

9%

Estrela

11.62

10%

Santa Clara

9.86

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 9.1 6.4 3.0 1.1 0.3
1 8.6 12.1 8.5 4.0 1.4 0.4
2 5.7 8.1 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.3
3 2.6 3.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.335
λ Away (xG) 1.408
Total xG 2.743
League avg home goals 1.348
League avg away goals 1.161
Estrela attack strength 1.028
Estrela defence strength 1.239
Santa Clara attack strength 0.978
Santa Clara defence strength 0.964
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 22