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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela and Nacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela and Nacional finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 0.91 xG and Nacional 1.19 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Nacional attack 0.84 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 27% | Draw 32% | Nacional 41%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 34%, Nacional 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Nacional's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.89 PPG, Nacional 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights