Estrela 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estrela and Maritimo meet at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Maritimo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.61 xG and Maritimo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Maritimo attack 0.822 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.100. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Estrela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Estrela games / 68 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 51% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 24%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Maritimo 4.17. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estrela are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 51% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Estrela 1.61 / Maritimo 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Maritimo attack 0.822 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Estrela (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Maritimo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Maritimo kick off?
Estrela vs Maritimo kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Maritimo?
Estrela 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Estrela vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Maritimo part of?
Estrela vs Maritimo is a Relegation Round fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 51% chance of winning, Maritimo a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estrela and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estrela and Maritimo in?
Maritimo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Maritimo away split: 0.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estrela's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Maritimo's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.82x) against Estrela's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.03
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.65
1.04
Maritimo xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
5%
20.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Estrela and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Estrela and 1.04 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Pre-Season
Maritimo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Estrela
0
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Maritimo?
From 2 meetings on record, Estrela have won 1, Maritimo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Maritimo 2-1 Estrela.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Estrela edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estrela beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Relegation Round, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.61 xG and Maritimo 1.04 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Maritimo attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 51% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 24%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.