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Guimaraes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Estrela 0-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.30 xG and Guimaraes 1.00 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Guimaraes outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Guimaraes attack 0.80 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 43% | Draw 28% | Guimaraes 29%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Guimaraes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 32%, Guimaraes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights