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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 25, as Estrela and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.44 xG and GIL Vicente 0.88 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against GIL Vicente attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 49% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 23%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 44%, GIL Vicente 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.96 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights