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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Estrela 2-4 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.57 xG and Estoril 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Estoril outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Estoril attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 52% | Draw 27% | Estoril 22%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Estoril win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 46%, Estoril 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.98 PPG, Estoril 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights