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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estrela 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Estrela 2-3 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.25 xG and Benfica 1.38 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 45%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights