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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sun 11 May 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio José Gomes

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estrela Win

62%

Estrela

1.63

22%

Draw

4.44

16%

AVS

6.25

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.4%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.1%

Home win

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.81

Estrela xG

Total xG

2.61

0.80

AVS xG

62%
22%
16%
EstrelaDrawAVS

1.63

62%

Home win

4.44

22%

Draw

6.25

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.18

54%

BTTS No

1.85

Clean Sheet

45%

Estrela

2.22

16%

AVS

6.12

Win to Nil

28%

Estrela

3.60

3%

AVS

38.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1
1 13.4 10.6 4.2 1.1 0.2
2 12.1 9.6 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 7.3 5.8 2.3 0.6 0.1
4 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.812
λ Away (xG) 0.796
Total xG 2.608
League avg home goals 1.304
League avg away goals 1.203
Estrela attack strength 0.883
Estrela defence strength 1.004
AVS attack strength 0.659
AVS defence strength 1.573
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 32