Estrela 2-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estrela at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio José Gomes to face Estrela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 9 December 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estrela have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio José Gomes this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Arouca have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Estrela, 0.80 for Arouca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estrela lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 48% versus Arouca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 48% | Arouca 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.73 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.043 / defence 1.165 | Arouca attack 0.836 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.090. Data: 46 Estrela games / 46 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Arouca 4.35. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 50% | Arouca 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Estrela 1.73 / Arouca 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.043 / def 1.165 | Arouca attack 0.836 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Estrela (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Arouca xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Arouca kick off?
Estrela vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Arouca?
Estrela 2 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Estrela vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Arouca part of?
Estrela vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 53% chance of winning, Arouca a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estrela and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Arouca?
Record (2 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 1 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Estrela and Arouca in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Arouca (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estrela's attack rating (1.04) and Arouca's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.84x) against Estrela's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.21
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.79
1.06
Arouca xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Estrela and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Estrela and 1.06 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 9W 15D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca's form line: 15W 9D 22L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Estrela against 1.17 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Arouca have gone 7W 5D 11L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estrela are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Arouca in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 9W 15D 22L in their last 46 games (0.91 PPG), while Arouca have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Arouca away?
Estrela's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.26 PPG; Arouca away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 1-4 on 28 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estrela
1
Draws
3
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Arouca?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 2, Arouca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Arouca 1-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 56%, Arouca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Estrela and 61% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 26% of games; Arouca in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estrela's recent matches and 52% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estrela's matches and 61% of Arouca's.
Do Estrela and Arouca tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Arouca in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estrela edge out Arouca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estrela beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.73 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Arouca attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 53% | Draw 24% | Arouca 23%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 48%, Arouca 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.91 PPG, Arouca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.