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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela and Alverca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela and Alverca finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.33 xG and Alverca 0.98 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alverca outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Alverca attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 45% | Draw 28% | Alverca 28%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 0%, Alverca 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Estrela arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estrela scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alverca scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights