Estoril 0-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Estoril welcome Santa Clara to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 September 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Estoril) versus 1.20 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Estoril, 3 for Santa Clara and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Estoril in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 60% versus Santa Clara 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 70% | Santa Clara 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.56 xG and Santa Clara 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.030 / defence 1.023 | Santa Clara attack 0.863 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.237. Data: 37 Estoril games / 37 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 48% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 26%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Santa Clara 3.85. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 70% | Santa Clara 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Sep 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 48% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Estoril 1.56 / Santa Clara 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.030 / def 1.023 | Santa Clara attack 0.863 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Estoril (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Santa Clara xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Santa Clara kick off?
Estoril vs Santa Clara kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 6 September 2025 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Estoril 0 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Estoril vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Santa Clara part of?
Estoril vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 48% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Estoril and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Record (6 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 3W.
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estoril's attack at 1.03x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.80
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Santa Clara xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Estoril and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Estoril and 1.09 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 12W 12D 13L from 37 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 13L across 37 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 1.30 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 7W 4D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.97 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Santa Clara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Santa Clara away?
Estoril's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.44 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Estoril or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estoril
1
Draws
4
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Santa Clara have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 56%, Santa Clara 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estoril) and 33% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 28% of games; Santa Clara in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estoril's recent matches and 44% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Estoril's recent games and 33% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Estoril 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Estoril 0-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.56 xG and Santa Clara 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Santa Clara attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 48% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 26%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 70%, Santa Clara 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.30 PPG, Santa Clara 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.