Chaves 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira to face Chaves in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Chaves (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chaves are significantly better at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira than their overall form suggests.
Benfica have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Benfica in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chaves lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Chaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Chaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Benfica 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 44% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.52 xG and Benfica 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.189 / defence 1.285 | Benfica attack 1.269 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.307. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Chaves games / 43 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 27% | Draw 21% | Benfica 52%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | Benfica 1.92. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 60% | Benfica 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 27% | Draw 21% | Benfica 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Chaves 1.52 / Benfica 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 1.189 / def 1.285 | Benfica attack 1.269 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Benfica (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Benfica xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Benfica kick off?
Chaves vs Benfica kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Benfica?
Chaves 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Chaves vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Benfica part of?
Chaves vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 27% chance of winning, Benfica a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Chaves and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Chaves and Benfica in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chaves's attack rating (1.19) and Benfica's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.27x) against Chaves's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
27%
3.64
21%
4.80
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.65
2.13
Benfica xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
12%
8.43
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
3%
30.72
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Chaves and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Chaves and 2.13 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chaves come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 11D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.53 PPG from 43 outings (35W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chaves's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.38 points per game from 21 outings (16W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chaves are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.35 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Benfica in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Benfica have gone 35W 4D 4L in their last 43 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.29 PPG; Benfica away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Chaves or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Benfica in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 5-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Benfica have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Benfica 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 67%, Benfica 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chaves) and 57% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chaves's recent matches and 33% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chaves's recent games and 57% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Benfica tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Benfica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Chaves 0-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.52 xG and Benfica 2.13 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 1.19 / defence 1.28 against Benfica attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 27% | Draw 21% | Benfica 52%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 44%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.