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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sat 18 Apr 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

46%

Casa Pia

2.20

24%

Draw

4.14

30%

Santa Clara

3.30

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

1 – 0

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.65

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.95

1.30

Santa Clara xG

46%
24%
30%
Casa PiaDrawSanta Clara

2.20

46%

Home win

4.14

24%

Draw

3.30

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.43

Clean Sheet

27%

Casa Pia

3.68

19%

Santa Clara

5.20

Win to Nil

12%

Casa Pia

8.08

6%

Santa Clara

17.13

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.2 6.8 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.2
1 8.6 11.2 7.3 3.2 1.0 0.3
2 7.1 9.3 6.0 2.6 0.9 0.2
3 3.9 5.1 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1
4 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.648
λ Away (xG) 1.303
Total xG 2.951
League avg home goals 1.521
League avg away goals 1.160
Casa Pia attack strength 1.008
Casa Pia defence strength 1.151
Santa Clara attack strength 0.976
Santa Clara defence strength 1.075
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 63