Casa Pia vs Guimaraes – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Casa Pia at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Guimaraes encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Casa Pia and Guimaraes meet at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Casa Pia haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Casa Pia's home record at : 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guimaraes's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Guimaraes haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guimaraes's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.00 for Guimaraes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 3W to 1W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.9 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Casa Pia winning.

With a balanced win record and just 0.9 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 47% versus Guimaraes 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 44% | Guimaraes 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.47 xG and Guimaraes 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.857 / defence 1.003 | Guimaraes attack 0.914 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.127. Data: 34 Casa Pia games / 34 Guimaraes games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 47% | Draw 26% | Guimaraes 27%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Guimaraes 3.70. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 60% | Guimaraes 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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