Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Casa Pia's home record at : 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to GIL Vicente, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
It is worth noting that GIL Vicente have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus GIL Vicente 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 41% | GIL Vicente 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.03 xG and GIL Vicente 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.732 / defence 1.509 | GIL Vicente attack 0.806 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.289. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Casa Pia games / 39 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 25% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 50%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 2.00. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 40% | GIL Vicente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 25% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Casa Pia 1.03 / GIL Vicente 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.732 / def 1.509 | GIL Vicente attack 0.806 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.57
GIL Vicente xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027.
What competition is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente part of?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 25% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Casa Pia and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
Record (9 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 5W.
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.81x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
25%
4.01
25%
3.96
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.57
GIL Vicente xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
19.25
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.57 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 6W 14D 19L from 39 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 12L across 39 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 3W 9D 7L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 9D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 6W 14D 19L in their last 39 games (0.82 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.95 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
From 9 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 58%, GIL Vicente 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Casa Pia) and 53% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 37%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 37% of games; GIL Vicente in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 47% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Casa Pia's recent games and 53% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.