Casa Pia 1-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Estrela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus Estrela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estrela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Casa Pia. A 0.70 PPG lead over Estrela (1.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Casa Pia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 50% versus Estrela 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 44% | Estrela 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.58 xG and Estrela 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.069 / defence 0.926 | Estrela attack 0.654 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.190. Data: 54 Casa Pia games / 54 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 57% | Draw 27% | Estrela 16%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Estrela 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Casa Pia (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 70% | Estrela 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 57% | Draw 27% | Estrela 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Casa Pia 1.58 / Estrela 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 1.069 / def 0.926 | Estrela attack 0.654 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Estrela xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Estrela kick off?
Casa Pia vs Estrela kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Estrela?
Casa Pia 1 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Casa Pia vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Estrela part of?
Casa Pia vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 57% chance of winning, Estrela a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Casa Pia and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Estrela?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Estrela 2W.
What form are Casa Pia and Estrela in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Estrela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Estrela's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Estrela's attack (0.65x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.77
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.30
0.72
Estrela xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
3%
30.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.72 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Estrela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 18W 14D 22L from 54 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 26L across 54 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.93 for Estrela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 7W 9D 10L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estrela's away record stands at 1W 12D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Estrela in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Estrela have gone 11W 17D 26L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Estrela away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.15 PPG; Estrela away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Estrela go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estrela won 4-0 on 20 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estrela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
0
Draws
4
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Estrela?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Estrela have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Estrela?
Estrela have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 46%, Estrela 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Casa Pia and 31% for Estrela.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 42% of games; Estrela in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 38% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Casa Pia's recent games and 31% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out Estrela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.58 xG and Estrela 0.72 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Estrela attack 0.65 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 57% | Draw 27% | Estrela 16%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 44%, Estrela 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Estrela's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.26 PPG, Estrela 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.