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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Benfica.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Benfica 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Benfica 1.20 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 0.77, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 30% | Draw 31% | Benfica 40%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 42%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights