Boavista vs Farense – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.58x the league average against Farense's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
28%
3.62
33%
3.07
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Boavista xG
Total xG
1.80
1.01
Farense xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Boavista and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Boavista and 1.01 for Farense, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.