Boavista 1-3 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Boavista face Farense.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boavista host Farense at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Boavista — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Boavista at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Farense have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Farense away from home: 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boavista at 1.50 PPG versus Farense's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Boavista in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Farense in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boavista 80% and Farense 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 60% | Farense 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 2.08 xG and Farense 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 1.085 / defence 1.122 | Farense attack 1.002 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.238. Farense's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boavista's projected output up. Data: built from Boavista's last 44 games and Farense's last 10.
Result probabilities: Boavista 53% | Draw 21% | Farense 25%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 1.87 | Draw 4.74 | Farense 3.93. Boavista hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Boavista's last 10 home games and Farense's last 4 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Boavista 80% (last 10 home games) | Farense 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 53% | Draw 21% | Farense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Boavista 2.08 / Farense 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 1.085 / def 1.122 | Farense attack 1.002 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Boavista (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Farense xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Boavista vs Farense FAQs
What time does Boavista vs Farense kick off?
Boavista vs Farense kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Farense?
Boavista 1 - 3 Farense.
Where is Boavista vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Farense part of?
Boavista vs Farense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 53% chance of winning, Farense a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Boavista and Farense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Boavista vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 1.08x the league average against Farense's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Boavista's last 44 games and Farense's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
53%
1.87
21%
4.74
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Boavista xG
Total xG
3.48
1.39
Farense xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Boavista vs Farense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Boavista and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Boavista and 1.39 for Farense, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Boavista have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 4W 3D 3L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Farense's form line: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boavista on 1.50 PPG, Farense on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Boavista have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Farense have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Farense's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.70 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Farense
Blended
Boavista (Home) vs Farense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Boavista
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Boavista vs Farense Form FAQs
What form are Boavista and Farense in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Farense have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Farense away?
Boavista's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.25 PPG; Farense away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Boavista or Farense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Farense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Boavista's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Boavista
1
Draws
2
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Boavista vs Farense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Farense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Boavista have won 1, Farense have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Boavista and Farense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Farense 0-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Farense?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 75%, Farense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Boavista) and 50% (Farense).
On the defensive side: Farense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Boavista vs Farense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Boavista and Farense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Boavista's games and 50% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Boavista and Farense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Boavista's recent games and 50% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Farense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Boavista's recent matches and 75% of Farense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Farense cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Boavista 1-3 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 2.08 xG and Farense 1.39 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Farense outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Farense attack 1.00 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 53% | Draw 21% | Farense 25%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Farense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 60%, Farense 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Farense's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.50 PPG, Farense 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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