Boavista 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Boavista face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Boavista welcome Benfica to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 September 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Boavista have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boavista at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Boavista's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Boavista in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 62% versus Benfica 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 49% | Benfica 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.01 xG and Benfica 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.765 / defence 0.921 | Benfica attack 0.952 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.159. Boavista's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Boavista games / 39 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 35% | Draw 31% | Benfica 35%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Benfica 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 50% | Benfica 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 35% | Draw 31% | Benfica 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Boavista 1.01 / Benfica 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.765 / def 0.921 | Benfica attack 0.952 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Benfica xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Benfica kick off?
Boavista vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Benfica?
Boavista 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Boavista vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Benfica part of?
Boavista vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 35% chance of winning, Benfica a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Boavista and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Boavista 1W | Draws 1 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Boavista and Benfica in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Boavista vs Benfica?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.77x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.27
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.03
1.02
Benfica xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Boavista and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Boavista and 1.02 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boavista come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 13D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.31 PPG from 39 outings (28W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of Boavista — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Boavista's home form reads 4W 9D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.21 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Benfica in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 8W 13D 18L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Benfica have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.11 PPG; Benfica away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Boavista or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Benfica in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boavista and Benfica runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Benfica won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Boavista's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Boavista
1
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 1, Benfica have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Benfica 3-0 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 63%, Benfica 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Boavista) and 53% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 32%; Boavista have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Boavista's games and 53% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Boavista's recent games and 53% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Benfica tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Benfica in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Boavista 0-3 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.01 xG and Benfica 1.02 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.77 / defence 0.92 against Benfica attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 35% | Draw 31% | Benfica 35%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 49%, Benfica 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.