Boavista 0-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Boavista at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Belenenses travel to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to take on Boavista. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 October 2021, 21:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Boavista have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's home record at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Primeira Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.25 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
Belenenses — All Games: 0W 4D 4L from 8 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Boavista are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.75 PPG ahead (1.25 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Boavista in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Belenenses in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 62% versus Belenenses 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Boavista 50% | Belenenses 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.34 xG and Belenenses 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 1.164 / defence 0.932 | Belenenses attack 0.732 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.213. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Boavista's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Boavista games / 8 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 45% | Draw 36% | Belenenses 19%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Belenenses 5.26. Boavista hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 50% | Belenenses 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 45% | Draw 36% | Belenenses 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Boavista 1.34 / Belenenses 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 1.164 / def 0.932 | Belenenses attack 0.732 / def 1.235 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Boavista (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Belenenses xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Belenenses kick off?
Boavista vs Belenenses kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Belenenses?
Boavista 0 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is Boavista vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Belenenses part of?
Boavista vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 45% chance of winning, Belenenses a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Boavista and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Belenenses?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and Belenenses in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Belenenses (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Boavista's attack rating (1.16) and Belenenses's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
45%
2.22
36%
2.80
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.17
0.83
Belenenses xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Boavista and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Boavista and 0.83 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boavista come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 4D 2L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Belenenses sit at 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Belenenses — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Boavista's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Boavista are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Belenenses have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boavista are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Belenenses away?
Boavista's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 2.00 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boavista
2
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Boavista have won 0, Belenenses have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Belenenses 0-0 Boavista.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 50%, Belenenses 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Boavista and 25% for Belenenses.
On the defensive side: Boavista keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Belenenses in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Boavista's recent matches and 25% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Boavista's recent games and 25% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Belenenses tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Boavista's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista and Belenenses finished level at 0-0 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.34 xG and Belenenses 0.83 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Belenenses landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Belenenses attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 45% | Draw 36% | Belenenses 19%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, Belenenses 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Belenenses's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Boavista arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Belenenses (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.