Benfica 6-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (72%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Benfica face Vizela.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Vizela at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Benfica — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Benfica have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vizela stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vizela's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Benfica hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Vizela and 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Benfica 2–1 Vizela — a Benfica win.
The head-to-head data gives Benfica an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Vizela in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 38% versus Vizela 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Vizela 44%). Note also that Vizela surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Benfica recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.15 xG and Vizela 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.341 / defence 0.673 | Vizela attack 0.810 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.188. Benfica carry an above-average attack rating of 1.341 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica have a tight defence (rating 0.673), which is pulling Vizela's projected output down. Data: built from Benfica's last 55 games and Vizela's last 55.
Result probabilities: Benfica 72% | Draw 18% | Vizela 10%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.39 | Draw 5.53 | Vizela 10.13. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (72%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | Vizela 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 72% | Draw 18% | Vizela 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Benfica 2.15 / Vizela 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.341 / def 0.673 | Vizela attack 0.810 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Benfica (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Vizela xG
42%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Benfica vs Vizela FAQs
What time does Benfica vs Vizela kick off?
Benfica vs Vizela kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Vizela?
Benfica 6 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Benfica vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Vizela part of?
Benfica vs Vizela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 72% chance of winning, Vizela a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Benfica and Vizela will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Benfica vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.34x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Benfica's last 55 games and Vizela's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.53
10%
10.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.79
0.65
Vizela xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
10.13
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
1%
86.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Benfica vs Vizela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Benfica and 0.65 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica's recent record stands at 44W 7D 4L from 55 games, a 2.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 27L across 55 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 23W 3D 1L from their last 27 home games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.96 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Vizela
Blended
Benfica (Home) vs Vizela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Benfica
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Benfica vs Vizela Form FAQs
What form are Benfica and Vizela in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 44W 7D 4L in their last 55 games (2.53 PPG), while Vizela have gone 14W 14D 27L in their last 55 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Vizela away?
Benfica's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.67 PPG; Vizela away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Benfica or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Vizela in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Feb 2024, when Benfica won Benfica 6-1 Vizela.
Benfica's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Benfica vs Vizela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Vizela?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Benfica have won 5, Vizela have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Benfica and Vizela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Benfica 6-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Vizela?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 44%, Vizela 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benfica) and 37% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Vizela in 33%; Vizela in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Benfica vs Vizela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Benfica and Vizela matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Benfica's recent matches and 41% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Benfica and Vizela matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benfica's recent games and 37% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Vizela matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Benfica's recent matches and 52% of Vizela's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vizela 6-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.15 xG and Vizela 0.65 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.34 / defence 0.67 against Vizela attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 72% | Draw 18% | Vizela 10%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.63 average — above their attacking norm. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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