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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Fri 12 Sep 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio da Luz

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

57%

Benfica

1.76

24%

Draw

4.20

20%

Santa Clara

5.12

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.3%

Draw

2 – 0

10.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.72

Benfica xG

Total xG

2.61

0.90

Santa Clara xG

57%
24%
20%
BenficaDrawSanta Clara

1.76

57%

Home win

4.20

24%

Draw

5.12

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.06

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

41%

Benfica

2.45

18%

Santa Clara

5.56

Win to Nil

23%

Benfica

4.33

4%

Santa Clara

28.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.3 6.6 3.0 0.9 0.2
1 12.6 11.3 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.1
2 10.8 9.7 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 6.2 5.5 2.5 0.7 0.2
4 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.715
λ Away (xG) 0.898
Total xG 2.613
League avg home goals 1.374
League avg away goals 1.236
Benfica attack strength 1.328
Benfica defence strength 0.847
Santa Clara attack strength 0.858
Santa Clara defence strength 0.940
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 37 / 38