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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 19

Kick-off

Sun 25 Jan 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio da Luz

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

62%

Benfica

1.62

20%

Draw

5.10

18%

Estrela

5.41

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.7%

Draw

2 – 0

8.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.23

Benfica xG

Total xG

3.38

1.15

Estrela xG

62%
20%
18%
BenficaDrawEstrela

1.62

62%

Home win

5.10

20%

Draw

5.41

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.64

39%

BTTS No

2.55

Clean Sheet

32%

Benfica

3.14

11%

Estrela

9.30

Win to Nil

20%

Benfica

5.08

2%

Estrela

50.27

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1
1 7.6 8.7 5.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 8.5 9.7 5.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 6.3 7.2 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1
4 3.5 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.230
λ Away (xG) 1.145
Total xG 3.375
League avg home goals 1.452
League avg away goals 1.278
Benfica attack strength 1.252
Benfica defence strength 0.798
Estrela attack strength 1.123
Estrela defence strength 1.227
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 52 / 52