Benfica 1-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Estrela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Estrela travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 10W 0D 0L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Estrela — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Estrela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estrela's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Benfica's 30% rate and Estrela's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Benfica, 0 for Estrela and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2024, ended 4–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Estrela trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 44% versus Estrela 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 61% | Estrela 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.97 xG and Estrela 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.446 / defence 0.683 | Estrela attack 0.814 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.400. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.683 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Benfica games / 36 Estrela games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Estrela 14%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Estrela 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 30% | Estrela 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Estrela 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Benfica 1.97 / Estrela 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.446 / def 0.683 | Estrela attack 0.814 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Benfica (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Estrela xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Estrela kick off?
Benfica vs Estrela kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estrela?
Benfica 1 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Benfica vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estrela part of?
Benfica vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 65% chance of winning, Estrela a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Benfica and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estrela?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | Estrela 0W.
What form are Benfica and Estrela in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Estrela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.45) and Estrela's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.84
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.75
0.78
Estrela xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
2%
51.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Benfica and 0.78 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estrela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 26W 5D 5L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estrela's form line: 7W 13D 16L from 36 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Estrela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.37 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estrela.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.78 PPG from 18 outings (16W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.31 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 10D 7L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.94 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Estrela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Estrela in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 26W 5D 5L in their last 36 games (2.31 PPG), while Estrela have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estrela away?
Benfica's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.78 PPG; Estrela away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estrela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Estrela in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estrela?
From 6 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Estrela have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estrela?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 39%, Estrela 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benfica) and 33% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Estrela in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Benfica's recent matches and 44% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benfica's recent games and 33% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Estrela tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Estrela in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estrela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.97 xG and Estrela 0.78 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.45 / defence 0.68 against Estrela attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Estrela 14%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, Estrela 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estrela's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.