Benfica 2-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Estrela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estrela travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Benfica have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Benfica have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Benfica are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Estrela — last 3 games: 1W 0D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Estrela trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 67% and Estrela 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 100% | Estrela 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.05 xG and Estrela 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.162 / defence 0.833 | Estrela attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.297. Data: built from Benfica's last 35 games and Estrela's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benfica 63% | Draw 20% | Estrela 16%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.58 | Draw 4.88 | Estrela 6.23. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Benfica 40% (last 10 home games) | Estrela 67% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Benfica 35 games, Estrela 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 2 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 63% | Draw 20% | Estrela 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Benfica 2.05 / Estrela 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.162 / def 0.833 | Estrela attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Benfica (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Estrela xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Benfica vs Estrela FAQs
What time does Benfica vs Estrela kick off?
Benfica vs Estrela kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estrela?
Benfica 2 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Benfica vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estrela part of?
Benfica vs Estrela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 2) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 63% chance of winning, Estrela a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benfica and Estrela will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Benfica vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.16) and Estrela's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Benfica's last 35 games and Estrela's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
63%
1.58
20%
4.88
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.96
0.92
Estrela xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
48.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Benfica vs Estrela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Benfica and 0.92 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estrela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Benfica have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-W-L across the most recent five.
Estrela's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benfica on 1.33 PPG, Estrela on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Estrela in 67%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Estrela
Early Season
Benfica (Home) vs Estrela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Benfica
Early Season
Estrela
Early Season
❓ Benfica vs Estrela Form FAQs
What form are Benfica and Estrela in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Estrela have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Benfica or Estrela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estrela in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won each of the latest 7 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Benfica's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
7
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Benfica vs Estrela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estrela?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Benfica have won 7, Estrela have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estrela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Estrela 2-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estrela?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 67%, Estrela at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Benfica and 67% for Estrela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Estrela in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Benfica vs Estrela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Benfica and Estrela matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benfica's games and 67% of Estrela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Benfica and Estrela matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Benfica's matches and 67% of Estrela's.
Do Benfica and Estrela matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Benfica's recent matches and 100% of Estrela's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estrela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estrela 2-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.05 xG and Estrela 0.92 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estrela landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.16 / defence 0.83 against Estrela attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 63% | Draw 20% | Estrela 16%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 100%, Estrela 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estrela's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benfica 1.33 PPG, Estrela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. Benfica conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 2
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →