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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AVS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vizela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS beat Vizela 3-0 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Relegation Round, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.85 xG and Vizela 1.63 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AVS beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vizela landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Vizela attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 19% | Draw 25% | Vizela 56%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a AVS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 41%, Vizela 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Vizela's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 0.79 PPG, Vizela 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AVS win broke the near-deadlock. AVS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights