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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Tondela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS and Tondela finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.24 xG and Tondela 1.09 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tondela outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 38% | Draw 32% | Tondela 30%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 67%, Tondela 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Tondela's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Tondela arrived the stronger side — 0.56 PPG against 0.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AVS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights