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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 31, as AVS and Sporting CP drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.71 xG and Sporting CP 1.95 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sporting CP landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.16 against Sporting CP attack 1.49 / defence 0.71, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 13% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 67%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 52%, Sporting CP 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Sporting CP's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights