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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 0-4 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat AVS 0-4 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.86 xG and SC Braga 1.97 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. AVS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Braga outscored their 1.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.67 / defence 1.32 against SC Braga attack 1.20 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 16% | Draw 21% | SC Braga 63%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 51%, SC Braga 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Braga's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.66. That form edge translated into the three points. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights