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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rio Ave edge out AVS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat AVS 1-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.14 xG and Rio Ave 1.57 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Rio Ave attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 27% | Draw 26% | Rio Ave 47%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 50%, Rio Ave 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 0.72 PPG, Rio Ave 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights