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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AVS and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 11, as AVS and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.73 xG and GIL Vicente 2.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.77 / defence 1.39 against GIL Vicente attack 1.16 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 10% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 69%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 50%, GIL Vicente 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights