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AVS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Porto.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS beat FC Porto 3-1 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.75 xG and FC Porto 1.67 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AVS beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against FC Porto attack 1.35 / defence 0.72, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 17% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 59%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a AVS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 52%, FC Porto 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with AVS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AVS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. FC Porto (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights