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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Boavista edge out AVS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boavista beat AVS 1-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.92 xG and Boavista 1.18 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Boavista attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 29% | Draw 30% | Boavista 42%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 42%, Boavista 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Boavista's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AVS 0.91 PPG, Boavista 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights