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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Sat 17 Jan 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

AVS Win

41%

AVS

2.46

24%

Draw

4.24

36%

Arouca

2.80

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.7%

Home win

1 – 2

8.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.63

AVS xG

Total xG

3.15

1.52

Arouca xG

41%
24%
36%
AVSDrawArouca

2.46

41%

Home win

4.24

24%

Draw

2.80

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

61%

Over 2.5

1.64

39%

Under 2.5

2.56

39%

Over 3.5

2.56

61%

Under 3.5

1.64

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

63%

BTTS Yes

1.59

37%

BTTS No

2.69

Clean Sheet

22%

AVS

4.56

20%

Arouca

5.11

Win to Nil

9%

AVS

11.21

7%

Arouca

14.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.3 6.5 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.3
1 7.0 10.6 8.1 4.1 1.5 0.5
2 5.7 8.7 6.6 3.3 1.3 0.4
3 3.1 4.7 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2
4 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.631
λ Away (xG) 1.517
Total xG 3.148
League avg home goals 1.455
League avg away goals 1.262
AVS attack strength 0.780
AVS defence strength 1.348
Arouca attack strength 0.892
Arouca defence strength 1.438
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 51