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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca and Santa Clara finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.59 xG and Santa Clara 1.15 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Santa Clara attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 48% | Draw 25% | Santa Clara 28%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 55%, Santa Clara 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.12 PPG, Santa Clara 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights