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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca and Rio Ave share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca and Rio Ave finished level at 3-3 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.65 xG and Rio Ave 1.12 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rio Ave outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Rio Ave attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 50% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 26%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 51%, Rio Ave 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.17 PPG, Rio Ave 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights