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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arouca run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Nacional 3-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.39 xG and Nacional 1.49 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nacional landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.96 / defence 1.32 against Nacional attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 35% | Draw 25% | Nacional 40%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 55%, Nacional 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Nacional's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.09 PPG, Nacional 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights