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Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Moreirense 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Moreirense 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.23 xG and Moreirense 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Moreirense attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 37% | Draw 30% | Moreirense 33%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 60%, Moreirense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Moreirense's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.19 PPG, Moreirense 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights