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Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Arouca 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.79 xG and Casa Pia 1.26 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.19 / defence 1.11 against Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 50% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 27%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 50%, Casa Pia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.13 PPG, Casa Pia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights