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Stalemate at Arouca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca and Casa Pia finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.21 xG and Casa Pia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Casa Pia attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 39% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 32%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 57%, Casa Pia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arouca 1.22 PPG, Casa Pia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights