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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alverca edge out Tondela 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Tondela 1-0 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.39 xG and Tondela 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tondela landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.33 against Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 45% | Draw 27% | Tondela 28%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 100%, Tondela 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Tondela's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 0.25 PPG, Tondela 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights