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Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Moreirense 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Moreirense 2-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.95 xG and Moreirense 1.42 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alverca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Moreirense attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 25% | Draw 27% | Moreirense 48%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Alverca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 53%, Moreirense 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Moreirense's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Alverca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights