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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alverca and Estrela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca and Estrela finished level at 1-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.56 xG and Estrela 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Estrela attack 1.03 / defence 1.30, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 41% | Draw 24% | Estrela 35%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 58%, Estrela 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Estrela's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.21 PPG, Estrela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights