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Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Plock.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Wisla Plock 2-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.34 xG and Wisla Plock 0.77 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Wisla Plock attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 31% | Wisla Plock 20%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Wisla Plock 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights